Wednesday, September 12, 2012


The opinion from Karlsruhe it should run fast: already in October the ESM Rescue Fund could take up his work. Needy countries there are progressing enough - all Cyprus and Spain.
Klaus Regling does not need a long training period. He knows out namely with the behaviour of the euro saver. As Chief Executive Officer (CEO) - as this is Bank called in he - he leads the provisional recovery screen EFSF over two years. Actually he should assume already the Chief post in the successor, the Permanent Fund of ESM, since this summer as Managing Director. But his move was delayed because of complaints at the Federal Constitutional Court. Is it likely the opinion from Karlsruhe but quickly.
Already at their meeting on 8 October, the Finance Ministers of euro countries could sign the treaties for the ESM. Then, nothing in the way is Regling switch to the ESM. Move it but does not have therefore. The ESM is housed in the same building in Luxembourg as also the EFSF, which for a year will work in parallel. So far 57 employees stay on board, Regling is set in addition few. Until end of the year is to the ESM about 75 employees have.
Work there is plenty. Eagerly waited the euro countries to the new Rescue Fund, can distribute maximum EUR 500 billion in aid loans. The ESM will be filled with 700 billion, 80 billion in cash, the remaining 620 billion as warranties. Germany contributes most of EUR 190 billion.
That this limit must be respected, the judges in Karlsruhe have stressed in their judgment. Only if this is ensured, Germany can ratify the ESM contract and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble (CDU) as planned transfer the first two tranches of the ESM. Then, the Rescue Fund - which provides especially when many Germans discomfort - is able to work.
The euro Finance Minister which take all the important decisions in the Governing Council of the ESM, will have to decide in the autumn probably about first aid. A rescue request from Cyprus is regarded as virtually certain - whether he is addressed initially to the EFSF or directly on the ESM, is still unclear. Cyprus is all but already speculated a small sum less than 10 billion euros
A real test for the ESM would be a call for help from Spain or Italy. Madrid has submitted a request to the EFSF, he has been promised up to 100 billion euros for the recapitalisation of the ailing banks. Still no money has flowed, Spain must first of all a plan to clean up the financial system work out and determine the precise financial requirements.
It is planned that the Bank help by the EFSF on the ESM is over. But in negotiating is expected already that a second request for help from Madrid is coming soon. It is no longer the banks on the Iberian Peninsula, but just around the whole country.
Spain has problems to get fresh money at bearable interest rates on the capital market. Which changes not as soon as possible would be in autumn Madrid probably be the first test case for a new process in which the ESM works together with the European Central Bank (ECB).
Madrid would be a help request to the ESM, which then takes directly new Government bonds of the Government or provides you with at least a kind of Dispokredit - known as precautionary credit line. On the other hand you would impose a reform and cost Euro Finance Ministers Spain. As the means of ESM are limited, could the ECB parallel on the market already given buy government bonds and interest rates so press.
The ECB had made such interventions in the past two years, but without the parallel use of ESM predecessor EFSF. Hardly were the returns by the intervention of the Central Bank, the affected countries, in particular Italy, were after with their reform efforts.
Therefore, ECB chief Mario Draghi now wants that beneficiary States first tap on the ESM. Spain however so far refuses to submit to a strict savings dictation by the EU. When it comes to shove, Draghi and the ESM to the longer lever should sit but.

No comments:

Post a Comment